Market Signals: Main Events July 19-26 2023

The upcoming week is promising to be full of crucial economic events, which demand closer attention from Forex traders. Here is a brief overview of the most significant ones with the market forecast explanation and trading signals.

Wednesday, July 19

02:00 (GMT -4) — U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY

The U.K. CPI YoY data is typically released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on a monthly basis. This information is essential for policymakers, analysts, and individuals to understand the current state of the U.K. economy and its inflationary trends.

What it affects: GBP and currency pairs with GBP (GBP/USD, EUR/GBP. GBP/JPY)

The current forecast is bearish with a 8.2% reading.

05:00 (GMT -4) — Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY

The Eurozone CPI YoY data is usually released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, on a monthly basis. The CPI is a weighted average of the prices of a predefined basket of goods and services that represent the typical spending patterns of households in the Eurozone.

What it affects: EUR and currency pairs with EUR (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, etc)

The current forecast is 5.5%, signaling a bearish trend for EUR.

Thursday, July 20

08:30 (GMT -4) — U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

U.S. initial jobless claims refer to the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during a specified period, typically on a weekly basis. When jobless claims are high or rising, it indicates that many people are losing their jobs, which may suggest a weakening economy. 

What it affects: USD and currency pairs with USD (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD)

The current forecast is 242K, signaling a bearish trend for USD.

Monday, July 24

09:45 (GMT -4) — S&P Global US Services PMI 

The U.S. Services PMI is an essential tool for assessing the performance and trends in the services sector of the U.S. economy. 

When the market forecast for U.S. Services PMI is above 50, it suggests that the services sector is expanding, indicating growth and positive economic activity in that sector. Conversely, when the PMI is below 50, it indicates contraction, which could be a sign of economic slowdown or recessionary pressures in the services sector.

What it affects: USD and currency pairs with USD (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD)

Tuesday, July 25

10:00 (GMT -4) — U.S. CB Consumer Confidence

The U.S. CB Consumer Confidence is a critical economic indicator that measures the level of confidence and optimism that consumers have in the overall state of the U.S. economy. The index is based on a monthly survey conducted by the Conference Board, a non-profit business research organization. 

A value above 100 indicates that consumers are more optimistic and confident about the economy compared to the base year, while a value below 100 indicates lower confidence levels.

What it affects: USD and currency pairs with USD (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD)

Wednesday, July 26

14:00 (GMT -4) — Fed Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve (often referred to as the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States, responsible for conducting monetary policy to achieve its dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and controlling inflation. The short term changes in the interest rate are the main factor in currency valuation, which means that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions are crucial for the U.S. economy and have implications that extend to various sectors. 

What it affects: USD and currency pairs with USD (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD)